The air inside the community hall in Greenland’s capital was thick with warmth, a welcome contrast to the icy streets outside. As voters brushed snow from their coats, candidates from most of Greenland’s major parties sat down in the front of the room, ready for questions.
Every seat was filled, two dozen international journalists lined the walls and a man in a black and gray sweater stepped forward to the mic.
“Why is running a small business still so difficult?” he asked, his voice steady but impatient.
Cameras clicked and so did the strap-on spikes that several journalists wore on their boots to keep from slipping on the ice.
“You need to take those off,” the moderator said. “They’re ruining the floor.”
With some grumbles, the spikes came off.
On Tuesday, Greenlanders will cast their votes in what has to be the most closely watched election this island has ever held, as President Trump asserts again and again that he wants the United States to take over Greenland. He has refused to rule out force, and in his recent speech to Congress, he made a direct plea to the Greenlanders themselves, promising, “We will make you rich.” All the attention he has paid has drawn a wave of journalists, diplomats, social media influencers and investors to the Arctic.
Greenland’s leading political parties are presenting different visions for the future and some are pushing for a new relationship with the United States and quick independence from Denmark, which colonized Greenland hundreds of years ago and still controls some of its affairs.
But for many of Greenland’s 56,000 residents — a tiny population on the world’s biggest island — geopolitics is not a priority. At the recent town hall debate and in interviews with voters, Greenlanders expressed much more prosaic worries, often about living costs, unemployment, schools and health care.
“The election is shaped by what I would call a ‘cross-pressure’ — two competing narratives pulling in different directions,” said Rasmus Leander Nielsen, a political scientist at Ilisimatusarfik University in the capital, Nuuk. “The geopolitical debates might dominate headlines, but for the average voter, daily life matters more.”
President Trump floated the idea of the United States buying Greenland from Denmark during his first term. After Denmark said no, the idea seemed to die.
But this time around, Mr. Trump seems determined to “get” Greenland, as he puts it. His refusal to rule out force has sent jitters across Europe, where relations with his administration are already hitting new lows over a number of issues, including tariffs and Mr. Trump’s stunning pivot toward Russia.
European diplomats and American investors have been streaming into snowbound Nuuk, drawn by the island’s resources and its strategic location. Greenland’s position along Arctic sea lanes, which are opening up as the planet warms, have attracted the attention of the United States, Russia, China and European powers. The island also possesses vast mineral deposits, though many are hard to access.
In contrast to those sweeping ambitions, people on the island say they’re worried about higher housing costs and economic uncertainty.
“This election is a test of where Greenlanders see their future — both in their everyday lives and on the global stage,” Mr. Leander Nielsen said. “The question is whether voters will prioritize immediate economic concerns or the bigger geopolitical picture. It’s a tough call.”
At the heart of the election is the question of control.
For more than 200 years, Greenland was ruled as a distant colony of Denmark, its Inuit population largely sidelined as Danish officials controlled its land and resources. Over time, pressure for self-rule grew, leading to greater autonomy and eventually a government of its own. Today, Greenland controls most domestic affairs, while Denmark still oversees defense, foreign policy and monetary matters.
But full independence remains a challenge. Denmark’s financial support covers more than half of Greenland’s budget, making economic stability a key hurdle to sovereignty.
The coming election will decide the makeup of the Inatsisartut, the island’s 31-seat parliament. Nearly all major parties agree that Greenland should become independent — it’s just a question of when and how. They also differ on what the island’s ultimate relationship should be with the United States and Denmark.
No major politicians have expressed a desire to become an American state, and polls show that 85 percent of Greenlanders don’t want that. But some candidates, like Kuno Fencker, a member of the Naleraq party, believe that Greenland should establish close ties with the United States.
He says Washington could best protect Greenland and such an alliance would deliver more investment and development. Mr. Fencker is part of a small pro-Trump camp in Greenland and went to Washington for Mr. Trump’s inauguration. He says the first step is breaking off from Denmark.
“It’s about us gaining full authority over our land,” he said. “From there, we will cooperate with international organizations and other countries.”
The United States has maintained a military presence on Greenland since World War II, with a small missile defense base at the top of the island.
“The U.S. is here to stay,” Mr. Fencker said. “They will always be part of the negotiating equation.”
Other parties, including the Demokraatit, are more cautious about sovereignty and relations with Washington.
“We must be smart and not push for independence at the expense of our people,” said Bo Martinsen, a Demokraatit candidate. “Right now, immediate independence is not feasible.”
Mr. Trump’s attention has intensified the conversation about independence and what Greenland should do if it breaks off from Denmark.
“The most important thing for me in this election is that there’s so much talk about independence, but I really want to know: How?” said Runa Sværd, a municipal planning chief in Nuuk. “I need a road map.”
On an island where harsh weather can shut down entire towns and 80 percent of the land mass is covered by a glacier ice cap, ensuring a smooth election isn’t so simple.
Ballots are flown by helicopter, ferried by boats through Arctic waters and sped to remote settlements by snowmobile. Once cast, each vote is counted by hand, with results relayed by email or, in the most isolated regions, by satellite phone. The results are expected to be announced late Tuesday, weather permitting.
“If a storm comes in and delays transport, we have to improvise,” said Klaus Georg Hansen, a former election official.
But storms aren’t the only threat. Danish intelligence officials have warned of foreign interference, with fake social media profiles posing as Greenlandic politicians and statements twisted to sow division.
With each passing day, the election buzz grows louder in Nuuk. As travelers drive away from the new international airport, two massive banners, one for Naleraq and another for Inuit Ataqatigiit, the governing party, hang on opposite sides of a rock-cut mountainside.
Further along, campaign posters sway from lampposts. On Thursday, as John Nathansen, a 66-year-old pensioner, made his way to a supermarket, the election was on his mind.
“The conditions we live under don’t get enough attention. Instead, it’s all about that orange guy — Trump,” he said. “In my view, independence should be at the back of the line.”
