A report from the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed a Bitcoin price region that could prove to be crucial for the bulls.
Several Key Bitcoin Metrics Are Pointing At The Same Price Range Right Now
In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has discussed the Bitcoin investor cost basis from various angles. The first indicator that the analytics firm has shared is the “UTXO Realized Price Distribution” (URPD), that basically tells us about how the BTC supply is distributed among the different price levels based on the last transaction value.
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First, here is how this metric looked before the recent price crash:
As is visible in the chart, very few coins had their cost basis between $70,000 and $92,000 before the crash. In on-chain analysis, investor cost basis is considered an important topic, as holders are more likely to make some kind of move when their profit-loss status is threatened. Since this range contained the acquisition level of only a small part of the supply, it was sort of an “air-gap” in terms of potential demand.
This may be why BTC easily slipped deep into this region when the crash came. So far, though, the bulls have come through in providing support, as they have since participated in some buying in this vacant region, changing the URPD.
Thus, the range is now better set up to provide support than before, although it’s still sort of an empty region when compared to the other Bitcoin cost basis centers.
The second indicator that Glassnode has talked about is the Realized Price of the short-term holders. The “Realized Price” is a term that was also in the full form of URPD. What this metric measures is the cost basis of the average investor belonging to a part of the BTC userbase.
Below is a chart that shows the trend in the indicator for the short-term holders (STHs), who are the Bitcoin investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days.
“The Short-Term Holder cost basis has historically acted as an important reference level across bull-market uptrends,” notes the analytics firm. “We have calculated the ±1σ bands of the Short-Term Holder Cost-Basis, which have typically acted as a sort of upper and lower bound for local price action.”
Interestingly, this lower bound, that is, the level one standard deviation below the STH Realized Price, is situated at $71,000 right now. This is about the same level as where the previously mentioned air-gap area ends.
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This isn’t the only other place where this level shows up, as the chart for the Active Realized Price shows.
The “Active Realized Price” basically takes the Realized Price of the entire BTC network, with an added twist. The metric only includes the ‘economical’ supply, meaning that it excludes for the part of the supply that Glassnode has determined to be unlikely to return back into circulation.
At present, the Active Realized Price stands at $70,000, which is once again nearly the same level as the one from the other two indicators. “With significant confluence across several key cost basis metrics, this price region becomes an area of interest, perhaps being the final defence line for the bulls in the event of a complete capitulation,” concludes the report.
BTC Price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $90,000, up almost 5% in the last week.
Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
