A Gaza ceasefire deal, which has been agreed by Hamas and Israel, is set to begin on January 19, 2025.
The deal comes after months of efforts of mediatiation from Egypt, Qatar, and the United States, which were unsuccessful in brokering a new ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, following the initial truce in November 2023, which lasted for a week.
But why is this happening now, and what does it mean for long-term peace? Here’s a quick explanation from Egyptian Streets.
What we know about the deal
The deal has three phases, each lasting about six weeks. In the first phase, Israel is expected to halt bombing and surveillance over Gaza for 10 to 12 hours. This phase will also involve an exchange: Israel will release Palestinian prisoners, focusing on women and children, in return for freeing Israeli hostages.
For every Israeli civilian or soldier—whether alive or dead—held captive, Israel will release a set number of Palestinian prisoners. Humanitarian aid will also be allowed into Gaza during this phase. There are 94 hostages in total, 34 of whom are thought to be dead.
The second and third phases will focus on territorial issues, including how far Israel will withdraw from Gaza. While it is clear that hostages will be released and humanitarian aid will be provided, many specific details about the long-term plan are still unclear.
The longer-term third phase will focus on recovering the remaining dead hostages and rebuilding Gaza, with supervision by Egypt, Qatar, and the UN. Israel is expected to fully withdraw from Gaza during this phase.
However, the deal lacks clear consequences if Israel does not withdraw. Without addressing these details, the deal seems unsustainable, as it does not include a long-term solution.
How will the deal be implemented
The agreement still needs to be approved by Israel’s cabinet, and some members of the cabinet are threatening to leave the coalition if it goes through. Earlier today, Israel has said its cabinet will not meet to approve the ceasefire and hostage release deal with Hamas, accusing the group of creating a “last-minute crisis.”
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office did not explain what the specific issue was. Hamas, on the other hand, stated it is “committed to the ceasefire agreement” announced by the mediators.
Once the deal is approved by the Israeli cabinet, Israel introduces a system where they release the names of Palestinian prisoners, and there is a 24-hour appeal period in which anyone can stop the release of these prisoners.
However, this leaves a lot of time for more violence. Even when ceasefires are announced, Israel sometimes launches final attacks. For example, Israeli forces killed at least 82 people in Gaza, including 30 in Gaza City, after Hamas and Israel announced they had reached a ceasefire.
What is different about this deal
What is different about this deal is that it ensures that Israel withdraws completely from Gaza’s territories, and opens the possibility of ending the fighting there and could allow for the first steps toward reconstruction and stabilization in the Palestinian enclave.
For Israel to fully withdraw, it will require ongoing pressure to ensure compliance. There’s concern that a temporary ceasefire might be used just to release Israeli captives, after which Israel could resume bombing Gaza. Human rights lawyer Diana Buttu warns that Israel’s focus is not just on Gaza, but also on the West Bank, and she fears this could lead to continued ethnic cleansing in the West Bank.
Why did this deal happen now
The current agreement closely resembles past ones from May 2024, suggesting that this situation could have been addressed earlier. Many experts believe that the US president at the time, particularly Biden, did not push hard enough to stop it.
One factor influencing the deal is that US President-elect Donald Trump’s desire to take credit for securing it. In December 2024, he posted on social media, warning Hamas to release the hostages or face severe consequences once he takes office on January 20, 2025. He promised “hell to pay” for those responsible for the hostages if they weren’t freed.
Internally and externally, Israel is facing mounting pressure. Months before the deal, three major developments occurred. On May 20, the International Criminal Court (ICC) sought arrest warrants for Israeli leaders, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, for war crimes related to the Gaza conflict. The ICC also targeted Hamas leaders for atrocities since October 7.
Norway, Spain, and Ireland also declared their intent to recognize Palestinian statehood, following the lead of over 140 other UN member states.
Within Israel, protests have grown, demanding a ceasefire and the release of hostages. There is increasing criticism of Netanyahu, especially over his failure to present a clear plan for Gaza after the conflict. Even members of his own war cabinet are questioning his strategy.
What does the deal mean for Palestinians in Gaza
The deal requires 600 truckloads of aid to enter Gaza each day during the ceasefire, including 50 trucks with fuel and 300 for northern Gaza.
Palestinians who were forced to leave northern Gaza during the war can return once Israel pulls back in the first phase of the deal. More than 90 percent of the population has been forced to flee their homes.
