For decades, Hezbollah’s grip on Lebanon was iron tight.
With its vast arsenal, the militant group was more powerful than the country’s national military. It controlled or held sway over Lebanon’s most important government agencies as well as critical infrastructure, like its border with Syria and commercial port. Almost no major political decisions could be made without its backing, and no political party could seriously challenge any move it, or its patron Iran, made.
But that longstanding status quo has now been shaken — a turnabout for Hezbollah that has opened a new political chapter in Lebanon.
Fourteen months of fighting against Israel has left the once untouchable Shiite Muslim group battered. Rebels toppled its main ally in neighboring Syria, the dictator Bashar al-Assad. Iran also now finds itself weakened as it and its allies have been hit hard by Israel.
Hezbollah is on its shakiest ground in years, as power dynamics are being realigned across the Middle East after more than a year of war and turmoil. And while the group remains powerful — it still has many thousands of fighters and commands the loyalty of most of the country’s Shiite Muslims — analysts say one thing is clear: The era of Hezbollah and Iran’s unshakable dominance in Lebanon appears to be over.
“It’s a new political reality,” said Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. “It will take time for this new reality to unfold,” he added, “but what we’ve seen so far is enough to show us that the tide has turned.”
Those shifting political sands were laid bare on Thursday, when Lebanon’s Parliament elected a new president, overcoming years of political gridlock that many critics attributed to Hezbollah’s efforts to block any attempt at resolution. The political paralysis has left the country under the direction of a weak and ineffectual caretaker government for more than two years.
In Lebanon, many saw the election on Thursday of Gen. Joseph Aoun, the commander of the Lebanese military, as a crucial step toward bringing stability to the country. It was also seen as a concession by Hezbollah and, some analysts said, an acknowledgment that the group was no longer in a position to paralyze the state.
Since Lebanon’s founding, a multitude of factions and sects from the country’s more than a dozen religious groups have jockeyed for power and influence. Its fragile political system relies on agreements among parties and sects, as well as their foreign backers. That system has held the country together by a thread as it has careened from crisis to crisis since a 15-year civil war ended in 1990.
Over the past three decades, Hezbollah — which is both a political party and a militant group — has outmaneuvered its domestic foes and struck strategic alliances to cement its position as the real power underpinning the country’s weak and fractious state.
Even as the government struggled to keep the lights on and water running, Hezbollah built up a vast network of social services — including high-quality health care and free education — for its mostly Shiite supporters.
But over the past three months, the group has been dealt a series of devastating blows.
Its war with Israel wiped out Hezbollah’s top brass, destroyed large chunks of its arsenal and left the country with a multibillion-dollar bill for reconstruction. Its stinging defeat also shattered Hezbollah’s promise to Lebanese that it alone could defend Lebanon from Israel — a claim that served as the group’s official raison d’être.
Then last month, the group lost its main land bridge for weapons and cash, as well as a political ally, when Syrian rebels, whom Hezbollah had once fought, toppled the Assad government.
Hezbollah’s patron Iran has also been on the defensive since Mr. al-Assad’s ouster and given its own escalating tension with Israel, including direct conflict through rocket fire.
Iran’s web of anti-Israel militias, known as the Axis of Resistance — Hezbollah was a key player — has unraveled, taking with it Tehran’s ability to project power as far west as the Mediterranean and south to the Arabian Sea.
Without those pillars of support, Hezbollah’s ability to influence Lebanese politics has diminished, even as the group and its allies try to present themselves as the country’s agenda setters. Their dwindling sway was evident even before the vote when, late Wednesday night, the presidential candidate backed by Hezbollah withdrew from the race.
Hezbollah’s “narrative has been seriously discredited, its military has been seriously weakened and, in my view, politically it will have to start paying the price,” said Sami Nader, the director of the Political Sciences Institute at Saint Joseph University of Beirut.
Most experts agree that even in its weakened state, Hezbollah remains Lebanon’s most dominant political force. But that, they say, is less a testament to the group’s hold on power and more a reflection of the country’s political dysfunction and infighting. That dysfunction was on full display during the parliamentary vote on Thursday, which frequently descended into shouting matches before the votes were cast.
The election on Thursday of General Aoun as president is the first step in determining a new political map for the country and the region, analysts say. General Aoun is widely considered to have the backing of the United States and Saudi Arabia. The Saudis once vied for influence in Lebanon before being eclipsed by Iran and Hezbollah.
In his victory speech, General Aoun hinted at the vision he and his allies share for a new political era in Lebanon, and said the day marked “a new phase in Lebanon’s history.”
He referred to Arab countries, once pushed out of Lebanon by Iran, as “brotherly” nations. He spoke of the state’s “right to monopolize the possession of weapons” — a subtle reference to calls for Hezbollah to be disarmed after its 60-day cease-fire with Israel ends later this month. And he envisioned a state that could be defended by its own national army, absent the militias like Hezbollah that have long dragged the country into infighting and war.
“My pledge is to call for a defensive strategy and the establishment of a state — I repeat, a state — that invests in its army, controls all borders and implements international resolutions,” General Aoun said.
Still, experts caution that the country is still in the early days of this new political chapter — and that Hezbollah may yet rebound. The coming months will be filled with critical litmus tests for the group, including whether it can help rebuild the large swaths of the country devastated by the war and whether it fully withdraws from southern Lebanon, as outlined in the cease-fire deal.
“Hezbollah has been dealt staggering blows in terms of its strategic powers and its ability to confront Israel,” said Paul Salem, the vice president for international engagement at the Middle East Institute in Washington. “But inside Lebanon, it remains a very heavily armed group, more powerful than any other in the country.”
